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Discouraging Statistics

By Antonis Loizou, FRICS
Antonis Loizou & Associates Ltd
Chartered Surveyors
Property Valuers - Project Managers

8 November 2009

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Discouraging StatisticsNow that the year comes to an end, it is interesting to compare the sales statistics/ buyers of real estate in Cyprus. Local and foreign buyers are separated per District and it is noticeable to see demand trends and the different changes in terms of percentage. Even Nicosia where there is no heavy/noticeable foreign interest, the change of demand/sales is noticeable. The statistics have been based on the Lands Office records and it refers to sales contracts deposited at the Lands Office – not transfers. The deposited sales contract (given below as a total of locals and foreign buyers) is the most reliable way to provide a comparative demand.

YEAR 2008

  NICOSIA FAMAGUSTA LARNACA LIMASSOL PAPHOS
January 367 187 345 301 415
February 349 269 312 345 306
March 365 142 229 317 273
April 296 143 296 310 291
May 325 216 282 268 275
June 298 166 289 297 336
July 330 225 266 369 352
August 155 128 165 236 255
September 238 196 241 233 249

YEAR 2009

  NICOSIA FAMAGUSTA LARNACA LIMASSOL PAPHOS
January 101 37 77 152 91
February 161 52 112 132 101
March 162 49 97 160 112
April 162 71 122 126 122
May 184 68 134 146 107
June 188 82 152 189 142
July 254 114 141 214 179
August 173 64 135 148 122
September 235 83 113 174 152

FOREIGN SALES (2009)

  NICOSIA FAMAGUSTA LARNACA LIMASSOL PAPHOS
January 8 12 26 34 51
February 15 18 28 41 58
March 6 16 17 25 41
April 13 20 18 36 35
May 19 12 23 31 43
June 15 52 29 40 65
July 37 30 41 52 90
August 10 4 29 20 30
September 28 26 23 30 60

If we are to examine Nicosia demand from locals, its interest is reduced almost by 50%, but it is interesting to note that during this year (2009) there is an upward movement.  Surely demand for the foreign market is improving.  This pattern appears to repeat itself in most districts and this is a trend which we expect to continue.  The lowering interest rates, the reduction of prices (around 20% overall) the increasing confidence in the market/economcy and the signs of a global revival are some of the factors which have helped demand.  The pending deposit of €3 bil. by the Government to the Banks, will also help lower interest rates further and this will help the market by even more.  Of course the recovery at the 2007-2008 sales levels, is very long and it is debatable if we will experience in the near future such high sales rates.  The property boom which was worldwide is not expected to come back earlier than 10 years and this might be a good thing in some respects.  The market needs to cool off, prices to rise, but at a logical rate and prices to move in accord to the people’s income increases.  Cyprus has, we hope, other positive circumstances which might help the market revival and these include the various infrastructural projects under way, the pending golf and marina developments, hopefully the improvement of the title issue etc etc.  We will say that as an estimate, we will note some noticeable market revival after mid 2010 and we might even experience increase in prices for good properties, as new developments are limited, sale opportunities are reduced and choiced projects become less and less. 

Lets keep our fingers crossed since the recession of the property market is not helping everybody.  Prices may go down, but then we have to consider the various (now) unsecured loans, demanding Banks, developers/buyers with liquidity problems etc etc.  Let us hope that the worst is behind us.

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